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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas.

...TX...
A mid/upper low should deepen as it moves from the central NM
vicinity to the central High Plains. A belt of fast mid-level flow
will largely remain within the southeast arc of this cyclone. At the
surface, a minor low over west TX should similarly advance north
towards western KS. A cold front will arc to its south in mainly a
north-south orientation through central portions of TX. 

Linear clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday
across parts of west TX near the surface cyclone. This activity will
probably persist through the day, especially with northern extent
where activity should largely remain elevated. This will limit
surface-based destabilization north, with more prominent surface
heating probable from central TX southward. Guidance differs on just
how far north instability will develop. This yields uncertainty on
the demarcation of the low-probability severe area where low-level
to deep-layer shear will be strong. 

Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak
surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should wane towards late day
along the south-central TX portion of the front. Progressively
weaker low-level shear indicates more of a hail/wind threat from
central TX south. Overall setup suggests severe coverage should
remain isolated into the afternoon and likely diminish after sunset.

..Grams.. 11/06/2024