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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

An active mid-level flow regime is likely to continue over the CONUS
through the extended forecast period. Strong troughing over the
western US will gradually shift eastward this weekend, followed by
shortwave ridging. By early next week, the upper ridge will break
down, allowing stronger jet energy to move back over the West ahead
of a deepening Pacific trough. This active and progressive flow
pattern will continue through the end of the period, supporting the
potential for critical fire-weather over parts of California.

...Southern California...
On the backside of the strong trough, northerly flow will linger
over southern California D3/Thursday into early D4/Friday. Offshore
winds will remain fairly strong early in the period before weakening
rapidly into this weekend. As the winds gradually fade, very low
humidity should persist into the first part of the weekend. This may
keep some risk for localized fire-weather concerns through D6/Sunday
across parts of southern California.

Later in the weekend and into early next week,  onshore flow will
return, increasing RH as a progressive, low-latitude flow regime
persists. Fire-weather concerns will lessen temporarily before
potentially returning ahead of another deepening trough midweek next
week. Medium-range guidance shows the potential for a period of
offshore winds behind the large Pacific trough into week 2. Strong
winds and very low relative humidity could overlap with very dry and
dense fuels across much of southern California. Model guidance
varies enough on the magnitude and timing of the onset of offshore
winds that probabilities will be withheld for the time being.
However, significant fire-weather concerns are possible at the end
of the extended forecast period and through next week.

..Lyons.. 11/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...