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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts,
are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains
into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...20Z Update...
Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through
mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western
Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This
will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across
east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and
increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening.
Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually
diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across
central Oklahoma and western North Texas.

..Guyer.. 11/04/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/

...OK/TX/MO/AR...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the
southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the
base of the trough and moving into west TX.  At the surface, the
primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central
TX.  Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface
boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over
a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather
event later today as the upper speed max approaches.

Morning convection and associated boundaries are co*plicating the
forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the
intense convection can form.  Nevertheless, pockets of daytime
heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid
thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK
and parts of north TX.  These storms will likely be a mix of
linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells.  Forecast
soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than
sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail. 
Strong tornadoes will be possible.  The activity will spread
northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a
continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along
the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line.