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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower
Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18.

...FL Keys...

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18
to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by
Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern
Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday.
While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL
Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will
increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with
increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of
waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer
bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty
remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the
northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast
Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities.

..Leitman.. 11/04/2024