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Mesoscale Discussion 2196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 702...

Valid 032252Z - 040115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes
persists across the watch area, with perhaps a greater risk across
the Red River Valley.

DISCUSSION...A large mass of rain and thunderstorms currently
extends form south-central OK into northern TX, oriented southwest
to northeast and primarily north of the outflow boundary/stationary
front. While favorable shear exists north of the boundary, cooler
temperatures are mitigating the overall threat at this time.

Farther south into TX, a very moist air mass is in place with PWAT
ranging from 1.50 to 2.00" into northeast TX. Given continued
southerly low-level flow, this warm advection regime will persist
across the stationary front, which eventually may return north later
this evening. 

At this time, storms have shown a disorganized structure in terms of
severe threat. However, the most favorable zone in a relative sense
is across the Red River Valley and surrounding counties, as the
ongoing activity translates east. Storm cores along the theta-e
gradient may pose a risk of damaging winds with the bowing
structures. Additional single-cells cannot be ruled out forming
ahead of the main band of storms, as the air mass is uncapped. A
brief tornado threat could occur with any activity interacting with
the boundary. If the front begins moving north, then storms may
acquire rotation along it over a longer period of time.

..Jewell.. 11/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33409790 34499659 34829601 34869544 34679482 34429460
            33729451 33419479 33399579 33239692 32969763 32989806
            33409790