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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

A mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the
Great Plains Day 3/Monday, before ejecting into the Mississippi
Valley by mid-week. As this trough shifts east, another strong
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify while gradually shifting
southward across the western U.S. Day 3/Monday through at least Day
6/Thursday. As this occurs, high pressure is forecast to build and
strengthen across the Interior West, which will promote fire weather
concerns across portions of California. 

Day 3/Monday: Southern California
Elevated to at least locally critical fire weather conditions are
forecast to be ongoing Day 3/Monday morning across the wind-prone
mountain and valley areas of Southern California with poor overnight
RH recoveries and strong/gusty north to northeast winds. Fire
weather conditions are forecast to continue into the afternoon
before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds lower.  

Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern/Northern California: 
Potentially stronger, more widespread, and longer duration
fire-weather conditions are possible by midweek across portions of
California associated with the aforementioned secondary mid-level
trough. On Day 5/Wednesday, dry and breezy conditions may occur
across portions of northern California, though continued
uncertainties regarding minimum RH reductions and fuel receptiveness
after recent rainfall (exceeding 0.5" in some areas) precludes
introducing Critical probabilities at this time. 

Confidence in Critical fire weather conditions is greater further
south across portions of Southern California, where strong/gusty
winds are expected atop fuels that remain receptive from
little-to-no recent rainfall. For this outlook cycle, 40%
probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were maintained
on Day 5/Wednesday and 40% probabilities for Critical were
introduced Day 6/Thursday across the wind-prone mountains and valley
areas of Southern California. Upgrades and refinements to the
outlook area are probable over the next few days as guidance
continues to co*e into better agreement.

..Elliott.. 11/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...