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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday
Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes
parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface
cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture
advection northward will support the potential for severe storms,
primarily within Oklahoma and Texas.

...Oklahoma into North Texas...
Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection
occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North
Texas. This activity co*plicates the forecast for the
afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for
additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon
from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the
persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough
continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central
High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and
low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of
all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear
convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations
would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater
concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat
is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma
where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late
afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location
of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether
discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater
threat low.

...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin...
Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into
the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will
overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a
quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts
across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some
threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will
likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some
QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the
east.

...Kansas/Nebraska...
Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development
appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given
potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger
forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop,
strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates
will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At
least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late
evening.

...East Texas into far western Louisiana...
Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East
Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East
Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly
flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging
winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence
of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will
also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a
brief tornado.

..Wendt.. 11/02/2024