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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly
surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to
develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of
Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a
strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may
initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued
low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH
values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday
morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across
this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to
locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop
late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire
weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas
of Southern California. 

Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday
afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and
neighboring areas.

Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
tomorrow's fire weather threat.

..Elliott.. 11/02/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/

...Synopsis...
On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the
Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread
CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across
southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening
surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. 

The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level
northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds
across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat
marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather
conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the
overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks.
However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an
Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy
conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley
during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH
reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...