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Mesoscale Discussion 2179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 020330Z - 020530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Hail may acco*pany the strongest storms across the
southern High Plains tonight.

DISCUSSION...Low-latitude short-wave trough is evident in
water-vapor imagery over eastern AZ, extending into northern Mexico.
This feature is ejecting northeast toward the southern Rockies and
LLJ appears to be responding to this short wave. 1km wind field is
increasing across western TX into the TX South Plains. This is
forcing higher PW air mass into southeast NM where boundary-layer
upslope flow is contributing to recent uptick in convection,
especially over Eddy County NM. Several discrete updrafts have
evolved across southeast NM, and more recently as far north as CVS.
With time, additional storms should develop along this corridor as
low-level warm advection will be focused into this portion of the
southern Plains. At this time it appears hail is the primary concern
and isolated severe hail is possible. However, hail coverage/size is
not currently expected to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. Will
continue to monitor this region.

..Darrow/Hart.. 11/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32560480 34970380 34880255 32210330 32560480