SPC Nov 1, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
SPC Nov 1, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
[html]Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Primary severe potential is focused on D4/Monday from parts of the
south-central states into the Mid-MS Valley. An emerging squall line
should develop early morning Monday (late D3 into early D4) across
parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of strong forcing for
ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and mid-level speed max
moving through the basal portion of a Southwest trough. Consensus of
guidance supports a positive-tilt ejection of this wave into the
central states, with multi-day trends of a weaker surface cyclone.
This should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly
paralleling the enlarging squall line. This will also support a
largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with the core of the
low-level jet rapidly advancing north-northeast from the
south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. This should
beco*e increasingly separated from the plume of mid 60s surface dew
points that should struggle to advect beyond the Mid-MS Valley.
The degree of instability with northward extent in OK/KS across the
Mid-MS Valley is questionable with abundant preceding convection
ahead of the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat may
be confined to parts of the Red River Valley and TX, with a
late-day/nocturnal severe threat extending northeast towards the
Mid-MS Valley. With weak mid-level lapse rates limiting instability
in the open warm-moist sector, along with the aforementioned
synoptic concerns, confidence is low in how widespread and vigorous
severe wind/tornado potential will be.
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Source: SPC Nov 1, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)