SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
[html]SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four
Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A
moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and
Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then
forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with
an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ
slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next
week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern
California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible
in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding
precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns.
...California...
Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the
Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California,
the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely
mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal
precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be
occurring over generally unreceptive fuels.
For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event
appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the
Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the
orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level
wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond
to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether
substantial fire weather risk will develop.
..Wendt.. 10/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Source: SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)