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Mesoscale Discussion 2175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...eastern to southern OK...northwest AR...and north
TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 310343Z - 310445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...While the overall severe threat has diminished, potential
for sporadic severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and a brief
tornado or two may persist into the early morning. Replacement of WW
696 with a broader severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...A linear convective band running the length of OK from
the northeast to southwest, and an emerging line over the TX Big
Country should persist eastward overnight. The OK convection has
been undercut by convective outflows with a distinct waning of
overall convective intensity during the past hour. Still, with a
plume of moderate buoyancy characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
from north TX into east-central OK, it is plausible that an uptick
in storm intensification might occur as the front impinges on the
plume. The front should accelerate overnight, while low-level winds
ahead of it beco*e more veered. This will shrink hodograph curvature
and suggests sporadic strong to localized severe gusts and marginal
severe hail should be the main hazards.

..Grams/Hart.. 10/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   36159531 36389436 36349368 36079361 35009439 34559507
            33209674 32429857 32649905 33449862 33959823 34699741
            36159531