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Mesoscale Discussion 2171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas and west-central
Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 695...

Valid 310036Z - 310130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 695 continues.

SUMMARY...A bowing segment embedded within the QLCS has shown
increased organization over the last 30 minutes. The risk for
tornadoes and damaging winds may be increasing.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a north-south oriented
line segment west of the KC metro has improved in organization
rapidly over the last 30 minutes. A more favorable updraft/downdraft
orientation appears to have developed with surging outflow. Though
recent scans suggests outflow may have outrun it temporarily. While
there remains some uncertainty, large low-level streamwise vorticity
is evident on the EAX VAD with 180-200 m2/s2 of 0-500 m SRH. The
strong low-level shear may support an enhanced tornado or strong
damaging wind risk with the more favorably orientated and stronger
line segment over the next hour as it moves through the KC Metro.
While thermodynamics weaken considerably to the east, strong forcing
for ascent along the front should allow for a continued severe risk
farther east this evening.

..Lyons.. 10/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...to*...

LAT...LON   38509513 38679519 39349483 39599460 39689419 39649377
            39559359 39379360 38879390 38709419 38589445 38519467
            38499486 38499496 38509513