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Mesoscale Discussion 2161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...central/northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301407Z - 301530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of some large hail are possible
this morning from portions of central Kansas into southeast
Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Lightning has increased across central Kansas as ascent
increases across the Plains within a moderately unstable
environment. The TOP 12Z RAOB indicated around 1300 J/kg MUCAPE and
continued low-level moisture advection and mid-level cooling should
increase instability as the morning progresses. Effective shear was
actually quite weak at 12Z with a 60 knot low-level jet near the
low-level jet and 60 knots at 7km with weaker flow between this
layer. However, as the mid-level jet streak approaches the region
and nocturnal influences of the low-level jet reduce, a more
favorable, gradually increasing wind profile with height is expected
to develop by late morning to early afternoon. As instability and
the wind profile improve, eventually expect some supercells to
develop along or slightly on the cool side of the cold front.
Isolated large hail will be the primary threat from this activity
later this morning and into the early afternoon. A watch likely will
not be needed in the short term.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...to*...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37110000 37939979 39269915 39729849 40519649 40619585
            40539567 40359558 39959604 38889745 38299801 37699865
            37329913 37069966 37110000