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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

A strong upper-level trough will move through the West during the
first half of the week before ejecting into the Plains midweek. At
the same time, an amplified mid-level ridge will move east from the
Plains into the East resulting in near-record to record high
temperatures beneath the ridge. By late week, a cooler, more moist
airmass will develop across the eastern US in the wake a cold front
associated with the aforementioned trough ejecting into the Plains
midweek.

... Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday: Southern Plains and Southern
and Central High Plains ...

Strong winds will develop across the southern and central Plains on
Tuesday in response to continued lee cyclogenesis over the High
Plains. These southerly winds (beginning on Day 2/Monday) will draw
moisture north and westward, squeezing the geographic area between
strong winds and low relative humidity. At present the best overlap
looks to be in a narrow ribbon from far West Texas north-northeast
across eastern New Mexico, western portions of the Texas Panhandle
and western Kansas/eastern Colorado. One important caveat in
highlighting this corridor is that the exact location of
elevated/locally critical conditions will be highly dependent upon
several factors: (1) west/northwest return of low-level moisture;
(2) potential cloud cover; (3) speed of ejecting trough and surface
cold front.

By Day 4/Wednesday, the surface low begins to move northeast into
the Plains and a surface cold front will push south. To the
southwest of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, a corridor
of low relative humidity and increased winds will be possible. This
area will be bounded by the dryline to the east and cold front to
the north. Again, like Day 3/Tuesday, the area will need to be
refined as confidence in the location and timing of these features
co*es into better focus.

Elsewhere, the large-scale pattern will favor a period of
northerly/offshore flow across southern California on Day 3/Tuesday
through D5/Thursday. However, potential preceding rains and onshore
flow should prevent critical fire weather conditions from
developing.

..Marsh.. 10/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)