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Mesoscale Discussion 2160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Areas affected...south-central into northeast KS...northwest into
north-central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242342Z - 250145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible this
evening, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe wind
gusts.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing early this evening from
central KS into northwest MO. Storms to the north/northeast of
Kansas City have developed just to northeast of a warm front and are
likely somewhat elevated. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection
will help to sustain these storms as they approach north-central MO.
Moderate elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and
sufficient deep-layer shear could support marginal supercell
structures with a threat for isolated large hail. Also, despite this
convection being somewhat elevated, a dry near-surface layer beneath
the elevated moist plume could support some stronger wind gusts this
evening as storms spread northeastward. 

Farther west, scattered storm development is ongoing from
south-central into northeast KS, as a southeastward-moving cold
front begins to intercept a pre-frontal surface trough and
relatively greater instability. While low-level moisture remains
rather limited, strong diurnal heating has resulted in MLCAPE
increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range, along with weakening
MLCINH. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear associated with an
approaching midlevel shortwave trough will support some organized
convection through the evening. 

Rather strong low-level flow (30-40 kt in the 1-3 km layer per
regional VWPs) and steep low-level lapse rates will support
potential for strong to locally severe gusts within this regime,
especially if any organized clustering occurs. Isolated hail will
also be possible, especially into east-central/northeast KS and
northwest MO, where somewhat more favorable moisture and buoyancy
will be in place.

..Dean/Hart.. 10/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...to*...ICT...

LAT...LON   37829798 38729706 39009674 39919589 40459437 40469379
            40479286 40379259 39899309 39569346 39029418 38269515
            37799564 37359641 37279699 37289743 37369820 37829798