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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

An upper-level trough will break down an amplified ridge over the
West this weekend. Upper level ridging will shift east over the
central US, with deep upper level troughing over the Northeast
through early next week. Upper-level ridging will amplify over the
eastern US as the trough deepens over the West and into the central
US mid-next week, with well above normal temperatures preceding the
upper-level trough. 

...Day 4/Sunday - Day 6/Tuesday...
Dry/breezy conditions will develop ahead of a Pacific cold front in
portions of the central/northern High Plains and Great Basin Day
4/Sunday. Critical winds/RH are most likely across portions
southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, but this area may expand
into northeast Colorado, southeast Montana, and the western Dakotas
depending on the track/timing of the upper-level trough.
Additionally, a 40% area was almost included for portions of eastern
Nevada and western Utah, but there is too much uncertainty regarding
critical winds/RH overlapping dry fuels. 

On Day 5/Monday, dry/windy conditions will overspread portions of
the Southwest and southern/central Plains. Two 40% areas are
delineated highlighting the corridors with the highest probabilities
of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Additionally,
depending on the timing of the cold frontal passage, critical
conditions may develop in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and
western Nebraska. Dry/windy conditions are likely to continue on
portions of the southern/central High Plains on Day 6/Tuesday, but
too much forecast uncertainty exists to issue any areas at this
time.

Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions may emerge in portions of the
Great Lakes/Midwest amid well above normal temperatures on Day
5/Monday - Day 6/Tuesday. However, this is dependent on the moisture
return ahead of the upper-level trough, which remains uncertain. 

...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 8/Thursday...
Gusty northerly and offshore winds are likely in portions of
central/southern California Day 6/Tuesday and possibly into Day
8/Thursday. Uncertainty remains regarding the duration, magnitude,
and spatial extent of this event, but areas may be necessary in
subsequent outlooks.

..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...