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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson
Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday
morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress
throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as
the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will acco*pany
this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current
expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast
from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across
the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints),
limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along
and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in
isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level
westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented
gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective
line.

Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection
along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of
any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more
robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be
possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the
guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe
probabilities will be needed in later outlooks.

..Mosier.. 10/21/2024