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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across
central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid
afternoon to early evening.

...Central Plains...
A co*pact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into
the central Plains.  As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific
cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. 
The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with
dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of
considerable daytime heating.  This will lead to a corridor of
potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours.  Most
CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where
robust storms may form.  One is near the weak surface low in
southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail
and perhaps a tornado are possible.  Another is in the area of
strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main
concern.  The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK,
where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection.  

Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern
NE and northeast KS.  CAPE will be very limited in this region, but
strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as
convection arrives from the west around peak-heating.  This might be
sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells.

..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024