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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across
eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this afternoon and
evening.

...NM into Far West TX...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over
AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through
its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place
throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream
persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north
along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates
cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level
southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day.
The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the
southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as
the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower
surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens.
This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and
strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High
Plains today.

Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western
NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far
south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow
across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the
front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the
front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible
west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a
few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and
hail.

During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector
is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum
rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the
diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The co*bination of
low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result
in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around
1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete
storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around
20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all
severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado
or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as
well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is
anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and
isolated hail are still possible within this band.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 10/19/2024