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Mesoscale Discussion 2147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Areas affected...northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 182046Z - 182245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce marginally severe hail later this
afternoon from northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from east-central
CO into northern NM, with low pressure developing ahead of it from
northwest NM into southeast CO. Gusty southerly winds are aiding
moisture advection into the region with lower 50s F dewpoints.
Visible imagery shows clearing east of a dryline and south of the
cold front, where MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg has developed.

Continued heating should result in scattered storms developing over
eastern NM, with meridional flow resulting in northeastward storm
motions. Veering and increasing winds with height is resulting in
elongated hodographs with around 40 kt effective shear. Lapse rates
are not particularly steep today, but sufficient moisture and
instability co*bined with favorable shear should yield a few
supercells with a hail threat.

..Jewell.. 10/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34210505 35180507 36050512 36800483 37470452 37570401
            37390355 36910319 36170315 34690311 34130319 33920427
            33950484 34040495 34210505