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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High
Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary
threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur
with the strongest storms.

...Southern Plains...

A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will
persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed
mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with
moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of
this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support
mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the
OK/TX Panhandles. 

Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence,
surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance
suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the
Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures
aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest
instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds
increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be
the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward
evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and
strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so
into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in
addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. 

Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening
forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater
moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the
Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and beco*e
maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large
hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low
to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time.

..Leitman.. 10/18/2024