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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA...

The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments
were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular,
the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over
northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface
observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over
these areas, which co*bined with the strong sustained winds and dry
fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For
additional details, see the previous discussion below.

..Weinman.. 10/17/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/

...Synopsis...
...Central Plains...
A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to
the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina
coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will
result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter
pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large
area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the
central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater
fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern
Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota
and western Iowa.  There is significant uncertainty regarding the
depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area.
However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry
fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum
relative humidities likely in the 20s.

...Northern Central Valley in California...
A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow
is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough.
This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds
amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central
Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by
this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to
locally critical conditions are expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...