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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Days 3/Wednesday...
On Day 3/Wednesday, an expansive surface anticyclone will move
eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same
time, a lee trough will deepen over the northern/central High Plains
-- in response to strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead
of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will result
in a tightening pressure gradient and strong/gusty southerly surface
winds across much of the northern/central High Plains -- aided by
boundary-layer mixing into a strong low-level jet. Limited low-level
moisture return will favor near-critical RH, and given very dry
fuels, elevated to critical conditions are expected. Confidence in
the development of critical conditions is highest over south-central
SD and central NE, where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH
is forecast amid the warmest surface temperatures. 

Farther west, the strong southwesterly midlevel winds acco*panying
the large-scale trough will overspread a relatively dry air mass
over the Great Basin. This will promote elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. 

...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday...
A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level jet will continue
to promote strong/gusty southerly surface winds over a large portion
of the Plains into the MS Valley on Day 4/Thursday. While elevated
to near-critical conditions are expected, confidence in critical
conditions is slightly lower than Day 3/Wednesday owing to
uncertainty in RH reductions. 

On the backside of the large-scale trough, strong deep-layer
northerly flow will overspread portions of central CA on Day
5/Friday. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns, and
elevated to critical conditions are possible.

..Weinman.. 10/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...