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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is expected to continue digging over the eastern
CONUS D3/Tuesday. Another significant surge of colder air will
acco*pany this feature, with a cold front making it as far south as
the Gulf of Mexico by D4/Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient
across KS/OK/TX on the fringe of this air mass Tuesday will support
breezy northeast winds (similar to but stronger than today/Sunday).
Farther west by mid week, a Pacific upper trough will move onshore
as ridging shifts eastward over the Great Plains. Precipitation
chances associated with this feature, including some lightning, are
anticipated from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West
D4/Wed-D5/Thur. A closed low is eventually expected over the
Southwest by late this week into the weekend, while ridging replaces
the trough over the eastern CONUS.

...D3/Tuesday Central and Southern Plains...
Breezy northerly post-frontal winds will progress southwestward
throughout the day from northern/central KS into northwestern TX, 
and portions of the eastern/southeastern TX panhandle. Although the
overall relative humidity should remain just above critical
thresholds, fuels remain highly receptive across most of this
region. In addition, the latest model trends suggest higher wind
speeds persisting across this region. As a result, a Critical
40-percent area has been introduced that covers most of KS and OK.

...D4/Wednesday Central and Southern Plains, and Great Basin...
Increasing south winds will quickly return to most of the Plains as
the upper trough begins to approach from the west. Confidence
continues to increase with regards to relative humidity dropping to
near or just above critical thresholds during the afternoon from
western OK northward into northeastern WY and SD. If trends suggest
even lower RH impacting this region, probabilities may need to be
increased in subsequent forecasts. This may especially be true
across portions of NE and southern SD, where breezy sustained winds
should continue well into the evening hours.

Farther west across portions of eastern NV and western UT,
south-southwesterly sustained surface winds are expected to increase
under the base of the mid-level trough. Fuels are not overly
receptive here, but are still unseasonably dry. Mixing throughout
the day should also result in at least near-critical relative
humidity being reached.

...D5/Thursday Great Plains and portions of the Midwest...
Breezy south winds will persist across this region preceding the
upper trough. Relative humidity by this time remains somewhat
questionable. However, considering D4/Wednesday's near critical to
critical environment, a continued lack of rainfall/receptive fuels,
and confidence in wind speeds reaching critical thresholds; a
40-percent Critical area has also been introduced here.

..Barnes.. 10/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...