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Mesoscale Discussion 1579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeast WY...southeast MT...and western
SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242148Z - 250015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts could acco*pany the
stronger storms this afternoon. A watch issuance is not currently
expected.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered high-based convection is evolving over
parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon, with
occasional supercell structures evident in northeast WY and
southeast MT. This activity is being aided by east-southeasterly
upslope flow and modest large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel
shortwave trough currently over western MT per water vapor imagery.
Preceding the trough, regional VWP data shows a belt of 40 kt
westerly midlevel flow, which is contributing to a long/mostly
straight mid/upper-level hodograph with 40-45 kt of effective shear.

This hodograph structure, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates
and modest boundary-layer moisture (lower/middle 50s dewpoints) will
support widely scattered splitting supercells capable of isolated
large hail and locally severe gusts. With time, continued splitting
and resultant cell mergers could result in an increasing risk of
severe gusts prior to nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization.
Currently, the severe risk appears too isolated for a watch, though
convective trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   43540651 44050795 44490799 45180770 45710678 46020567
            45840466 45340376 44730310 43970256 43410258 43080314
            42990395 42990473 43160525 43540651