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Mesoscale Discussion 1576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania into central New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

Valid 242005Z - 242200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging to severe winds continues
across northern Pennsylvania and southwest New York. A localized
corridor of higher wind damage potential may emerge across northern
Pennsylvania over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organize convection continues to overspread
northern PA into southwest NY. Regional VWPs are sampling wind
profiles with somewhat disorganized structure aloft, but 30-40 knot
winds from the top of the boundary layer through around 5 km. This
is supporting numerous gusts in the 20-30 mph range with occasional
severe gusts (including a 59 mph gust sampled by KELZ within the
past hour). Furthermore, wind damage reports have been noted with
this activity despite poor storm organization and limited longevity.
As destabilization continues downstream, this trend of damaging to
severe winds should continue into the late afternoon hours. 

A corridor of slightly more concentrated damaging wind potential may
emerge across north-central PA within the next couple of hours.
Reflectivity and velocity data from KCCX shows consolidating
outflows within a loosely organized convective line gradually
beco*ing more organized. The strong low to mid-level winds are
largely orthogonal to this line, which should allow for storm
maintenance across northern PA and perhaps a locally higher
potential for damaging winds.

..Moore.. 07/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   41407854 42057830 42877767 43297605 42977519 42547491
            41617575 41377599 41167630 41097677 41007753 41107841
            41407854