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Mesoscale Discussion 1575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Ohio to southwestern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 241710Z - 241915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
afternoon hours and will pose a threat for strong to severe winds. A
watch is likely within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A field of growing cumulus is noted from northeast OH
into northwest PA with a few deeper convective towers beco*ing
evident, one of which has rapidly intensified within the past 20
minutes. In the absence of stronger surface/low-level forcing, this
activity is likely being fostered by broad ascent ahead of a
mid-level perturbation across the Great Lakes, aided by rapidly
decreasing MLCIN as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s
(based on a modified 15 UTC BUF sounding). While thunderstorm
coverage in the near-term is somewhat uncertain given the weak/broad
forcing for ascent, continued destabilization through the day should
support the maintenance of the deepening convection. Strong winds
(upwards of 40-50 knots) are noted within the lowest 3 km of
regional soundings and VWP observations, which suggests that any
developing storm will pose a strong to severe wind risk. 0-6 km bulk
shear values near 35-40 knots will support storm organization,
including the potential for supercells capable of large hail. A
watch will likely be needed within the hour to address this concern
as addition thunderstorms mature through the early afternoon.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41298220 41928080 42707883 42897742 42567674 41897643
            41327665 40967736 40797928 40788068 40898179 41048215
            41298220