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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley
off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone
remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west,
expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into
the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak
shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery
of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin.

Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be
dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist
across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across
the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection
attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the
region. 

Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central
and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical
airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is
forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as
it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening
low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to
spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of
the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer
rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at
the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few
tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 10/07/2024