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Mesoscale Discussion 1573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...northern and eastern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin
and northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496...

Valid 240445Z - 240645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts remain possible, especially from
eastern Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin and possibly northern
Illinois later tonight. Trends will be monitored for upscale growth
and possible need for downstream watches.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms have redeveloped along the cold front
and atop existing outflow boundaries, aided by warm/moist advection
out of the southwest with 40-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds.

Ample moisture and instability remain in place, with the greatest
surface buoyancy across the IA/WI/IL tri-state area. Given the
warmer temperatures in this region, downdrafts may be able to
penetrate into the boundary layer more readily.

Radar indicates a more robust area of storms over far northeast IA,
and this convection is oriented more favorably relative to the
deep-layer shear to produce a forward-propagating MCS capable of
damaging winds. Some air mass recovery is possibly later tonight
into southern WI, and a damaging wind threat could develop into
northern IL as well should the IA cluster continue to beco*e better
organized.

..Jewell.. 07/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42898898 42558836 42108830 41568878 41448946 41939123
            42299196 42799201 43379197 43629152 43599121 43309016
            43108948 42898898