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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

Fire weather concerns will continue into the weekend across portions
of the Rockies and into the central Plains. Long-range guidance
continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of
an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor imagery across
the northeast Pacific) across the Pacific Northwest and
north-central U.S. through Saturday. A dry cold front is forecast to
push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains
and Midwest through the day Saturday evening as an attendant surface
low tracks across the southern Canadian Prairies in tandem with the
upper wave. Dry, windy conditions behind this front will support
widespread fire weather concerns. Upper-level ridging is expected to
build across the western to central CONUS in the wake of Saturday's
trough, which will result in unseasonably warm and dry conditions
across the western two-thirds of the country. However, weak gradient
winds limit predictability of widespread fire concerns heading into
next week. 

...D3/Saturday - Central Rockies into the Central Plains...
Forecast guidance continues to show a strong wind signal ahead of
and behind Saturday's cold front. Long-range ensembles show
reasonably high probability for 20-30 mph winds across southern WY
and from northern NE into the Dakotas. The strongest winds will
likely occur across ND under the mid-level jet max, but cooler
temperatures may limit RH reductions and limit confidence in the
northern extent of the fire threat. Confidence in favorable overlap
of strong winds, 15-20% RH, and receptive fuels increases with
southward extent with the greatest fire threat expected from
southern WY into central NE and far southern SD. The fire threat may
peak during the mid/late morning hours across the central High
Plains within the westerly downslope flow regime ahead of the front,
followed by a wind shift with slightly higher RH, but strong
northerly winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
possible further southeast from central KS into western IA within
the pre-frontal dry return regime where fuels have been slowly
drying.

..Moore.. 10/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...