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Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeast NE into northwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494...

Valid 240042Z - 240245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts remain
possible across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494. Trends are
being monitored for a possible downstream watch this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KOAX shows a cluster of storms
with embedded midlevel rotation tracking eastward at around 30 kt
over parts of northeast NE. 35 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and modest
low-level hodograph curvature/streamwise vorticity ingestion (per
KOAX VWP) coupled with strongly unstable inflow (3000-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE) should support the maintenance of this convection into parts
of northwest IA. The primary concerns continue to be severe gusts up
to 65 mph and sporadic large hail up to 1.5 in. 

Downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494, regional VWP data shows
a strengthening low-level jet and related warm advection over parts
of northwest IA. While earlier convective processing over this area
limits confidence in surface-based storm development, temperatures
have climbed back into the middle/upper 80s amid lower 70s
dewpoints. The gradually recovering airmass, co*bined with expanding
low-level hodographs could support a risk of strong to severe storms
this evening. However, convective evolution remains uncertain, and
trends will be monitored for a possible downstream watch this
evening.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41609786 41869783 42179756 42369738 43019611 43429519
            43419445 43159386 42589380 41689533 41339676 41339728
            41399762 41609786