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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper ridge will extend from CA across the Four Corners region
and into the southern Plains today, as multiple strong troughs
develop across Canada. One such lead trough will affect parts of the
upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, eventually weakening the upper
ridge over the Northeast. Behind this feature, a broad belt of
strong westerlies will develop across the Canadian Rockies, sinking
south across the US/CN border late.

At the surface, high pressure will affect much of the intermountain
West and Plains, with falling pressures across MT during the late
afternoon. This developing surface trough will move into the Dakotas
overnight, but will remain free of thunderstorms due to dry air.

Dry air behind a cold front associated with the aforementioned
surface high will push east across the Midwest and toward the lower
MS Valley late, further stabilizing the air mass. Strong ascent
moving across Lower MI and toward the lower Great Lakes may be
sufficient for a few thunderstorms along the cold front, despite
limited instability.

Otherwise, the most favorable environment for general thunderstorms
will be from FL into the eastern Carolinas where upper 60s F to 70s
F dewpoints will remain. Shear will weaken over the Southeast
throughout the day, but daytime heating as well as areas of weak
surface convergence may support scattered thunderstorms over the
interior FL Peninsula and near the coastal Carolinas.

..Jewell/Bentley.. 10/01/2024