SPC Sep 30, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
[html]SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect
central/eastern North Carolina through early evening.
...20z Update...
The previous outlook remains on track, with isolated strong storms
possible across eastern North Carolina through early evening. No
changes are needed with the 20z update.
..Leitman.. 09/30/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/
...NC...
Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a
weak boundary extending across eastern NC. Strong heating will
occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where
dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Despite the high/increasing low level
theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates
but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings
show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient
southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization. This
suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA,
albeit a little more favorable. A few rotating storms are possible,
with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind
gusts with the more organized cells. Therefore have added a narrow
MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary.
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Source: SPC Sep 30, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html)
Topic: SPC Sep 30, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 21 times)
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