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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 301700Z - 011200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...

The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations
depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and
northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to
35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with
the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours
of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD.
12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and
wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest
dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the
MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward
expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may
be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK
later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry co*pared to
locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be
offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward
expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy
conditions.

..Moore.. 09/30/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/

...Synopsis...
Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving
across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph
have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves
southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the
post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across
the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less
than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning.
In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during
the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low
before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather
concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota
this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are
possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest
Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...