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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower
Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far
southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs.

A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern
Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will
similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and
the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With
surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb
temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are
unlikely.

Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the
Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate
storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon
Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm
development during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 09/30/2024