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Mesoscale Discussion 1566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...southeast MN...northeast IA...southern WI and far
northern IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...

Valid 231936Z - 232100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue producing gusts around 55-70
mph across southeast MN and northeast IA into southwest WI the next
few hours. Severe potential will increase across much of southern WI
into far northern IL later this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...A couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms
are ongoing this afternoon across southeast MN into north-central
IA. This activity has produce gusts up to 66 mph and sporadic damage
over the past hour. The expectation is that this activity may
intensify and beco*e better organized as it shifts east into a
warmer and more unstable environment across northeast IA/southwest
WI. Forecast RAP soundings and the 18z RAOB from DVN continue to
indicate a favorable environment for intense winds and a swath of
damaging gusts is still expected as convection develops
east/southeast the next several hours. 

These clusters of storms are shifting east/southeast around 40-45
kt. This track will bring convection close to the eastern edge of WW
491 by around 21-22z. A downstream watch will likely be needed for
portions of southern WI into northern IL in the next couple of
hours.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43799345 44119313 44369243 44339124 44078968 43638826
            43398818 42548822 42208844 42088870 42028934 42199041
            42719300 42849374 42999393 43449375 43799345