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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...Central and Northern Plains...
Both the Elevated and Critical fire weather risk areas have been
expanded to enco*pass more of the central and northern Plains based
on trends in recent guidance. Nearly all solutions, including the
typically moist NAM-based solutions, have trended towards a faster
cold frontal progression through Monday evening with widespread
15-25% RH reductions and 20-30 mph winds in the post-frontal regime.
The general consensus among deterministic and ensemble guidance is
that much of central NE and south-central SD will see several hours
of critical wind/RH conditions, and elevated conditions may extend
as far east as the upper MS River Valley (though some uncertainty
persist regarding how far east the cold front will reach by late
afternoon). ERCs generally remain above the 80th percentile across
the central/northern Plains and will support the fire weather
concern. 

...Northeast Utah into Wyoming...
An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of northeast
UT into southwest WY. Breezy westerly winds in the wake of the
synoptic cold front should promote downslope warming/drying in the
lee of the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains. With the stronger gradient
winds displaced to the east, 15-20 mph winds appear most likely, but
a few locations may see winds up to 20-25 mph with RH reductions
into the teens and low 20s.

..Moore.. 09/29/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

...Synopsis...
A southeastward-moving cold front will bring elevated to critical
fire-weather conditions to the central and northern Great Plains. 

Gusty winds of 20-25 MPH will coincide with post-frontal
boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15% across much of
South Dakota into Nebraska and northern Kansas. These conditions
will overlap with ERC fuels that exceed the 98th annual percentile,
and warm/dry conditions expected the preceding day. A Critical
highlight area was introduced where the greatest confidence in
persistent dry and windy conditions will occur, though additional
adjustments and expansions may be needed as frontal timing and speed
co*e into clearer focus.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...