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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were added across portions of
western Montana, where the passage of a small mid-level trough will
encourage isolated to potentially scattered high-based thunderstorm
development tomorrow/Sunday afternoon. Though storms across the
higher terrain are expected to be relatively slow moving, the
presence of 0.50-0.65 precipitable water values and a deep, dry
boundary layer will encourage enough rainfall evaporation to
encourage both dry strikes and erratic gusty winds. The latest fuel
observations for southwest Montana show ERCs and Burning Indices
exceeding the 90th percentile (95th in some cases) with 100-h fuel
moistures approaching or dipping into the single digits. As such,
any dry thunderstorms or storms with strikes away from the periphery
of storm cores may support the ignition of new wildfires, with older
fires potentially exacerbated by any strong wind gusts that occur.

The previous forecast for Idaho/Wyoming and the southern Plains (see
below) remains unchanged.

..Squitieri.. 07/23/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/

...Synopsis...
Broad midlevel troughing and modest westerly flow aloft will persist
over the Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies. Over
southern ID into western WY, diurnal heating/mixing will result in
widespread single-digit to lower teens RH during the afternoon.
These dry conditions, coupled with breezy westerly surface winds
near 15-20 mph, will support elevated fire-weather conditions given
highly receptive fuels over the area. 

Farther south over the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface
winds will develop in response to a weak surface low over northern
OK. A couple hours of elevated conditions will be possible,
especially over parts of northern TX into OK -- where 20-25 percent
minimum RH will coincide with the breezy/gusty surface winds.
However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for Elevated
highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...