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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible Sunday from portions of New
England west-southwestward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley.  Damaging
wind gusts will likely be the primary severe risk.  Locally damaging
wind gusts will also be possible across portions of southern Montana
and into the northern and central High Plains.

...New England west-southwestward across the Midwest...
A cold front initially stretching from the upper Great Lakes to
Kansas is forecast to move eastward across the Lower Lakes
(eventually reaching the Northeast), and southeastward across the
Ohio Valley/Midwest/central Plains through the period.  This will
occur as mid-level height falls gradually expand southward across
the Great Lakes region south of a mid-level low/short-wave trough
crossing southern Ontario and eventually moving into western Quebec.


Ahead of the front, a moist boundary layer will undergo
heating/destabilization through the day.  Storms -- and possibly
some lingering severe potential -- may be ongoing early along the
front across the parts of the Midwest/upper Great Lakes, but bands
of afternoon storms are forecast to initiate near and ahead of the
front, from western New England west-southwestward to
Illinois/Missouri.

The strongest flow aloft is forecast from the Great Lakes to New
England, which warrants an expansion of severe probabilities across
portions of New England in this update.  Locally damaging winds are
expected as multiple clusters/convective bands evolve with time,
across the entire slight risk area.  In addition, a tornado or two
will also be possible -- particularly across the Lower Great Lakes
region and into western New England, where with isolated/rotating
storms will be possible, given veering low-level winds beneath
stronger west-southwesterlies through the mid troposphere.

Risk may continue through the evening, though gradually diminishing
with time as the cold front shifts slowly southeastward.

...Southern Montana into the northern and central High Plains...
A couple of short-wave troughs are forecast to shift
east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region, with
the lead disturbance expected to cross the central High Plains
through the afternoon/evening.

As heating/modest destabilization occurs, thunderstorm development
is expected -- initially over the higher terrain from southern
Montana into Colorado.  Eventually, storms may congeal into
clusters, moving off the higher terrain and into the northern and
central High Plains.  Given dry/deeply mixed subcloud layer, a few
damaging wind gusts can be expected, warranting MRGL risk upgrade. 
Risk should diminish through the late evening in most areas.

...Arizona...
As daytime heating/mixing/destabilization maximizes through the
afternoon across Arizona, scattered convective development is
expected.  It appears that with low-level easterly flow beneath
mid-level southeasterlies, some potential for propagation of storms
off the higher terrain into the lower deserts could occur, with
gusty/locally damaging winds not entirely out of the question. 
However, risk appears a bit uncertain/limited at this time,
precluding an areal depiction at this time.

..Goss.. 07/23/2022