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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
REGIONS OF NORTHEAST FL...GA...SC...AND SOUTHERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes remain possible through tonight across the coastal
Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest
relative threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast
Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and
southern North Carolina.

...FL/GA into the Carolinas...
Hurricane Helene will be making landfall this evening near the
Florida Big Bend region, and continue moving quickly northward
across Georgia into the overnight hours, per NHC forecasts. Wind
profiles are already favorable for tornadic supercells across a
broad region to the east/northeast of Helene, across parts of FL/GA
into the Carolinas. Low-level shear/SRH will beco*e extreme later
tonight from north FL into eastern GA and the Carolinas, as Helene's
large and intense wind field spreads over the region. 

Low-topped supercells with at least transient rotation are ongoing
across parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, and will likely continue
through the evening. CAM guidance generally suggests that one or
more bands of supercells will develop and/or persist into the
overnight hours across parts of GA/SC and eventually into NC before
12Z Friday morning, in advance of an increasingly prominent midlevel
dry slot. Tropical moisture (with dewpoints into the upper 70s F)
will also be drawn farther inland during this time period, with
MLCAPE increasing to near or above 1000 J/kg across coastal areas,
with greater than 500 J/kg farther inland. This environment will
support the potential for several nocturnal tornadoes.

..Dean.. 09/27/2024