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Mesoscale Discussion 2118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle and southwest
Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 685...

Valid 261940Z - 262145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 685 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado risk continues across WW 684. The focus should
remain close to a weak front/baroclinic zone across the FL Panhandle
and Southwest GA.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of Hurricane Helene located near 26.4N 85.0W or
195 MI...315 km SW of Tampa, the environment remains favorable for a
few tornadoes. Inland advection of a very moist tropical air mass
continues along and east of a weak stalled frontal boundary, with
weak buoyancy (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) supporting numerous low-topped
convective elements in the outer bands. Low-level hodographs have
also continued to expand with the TLH VAD showing strong low-level
turning and 250-350 m2/s2 o-1km SRH. As low-topped offshore cells
with low-level rotation move northwestward near Apalachicola, a few
tornadoes are possible. The greatest focus for tornadoes appears to
be along and east of the boundary, where low-level shear should be
somewhat enhanced. However, as Helene approaches later this
afternoon, low-level shear will continue to increase, supporting a
risk for tornadoes across much of the watch area.

..Lyons.. 09/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   30698593 31928509 32148310 32108218 31738158 31178135
            30728161 30378228 29378338 29008432 28838509 28888546
            29358589 30698593