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Mesoscale Discussion 2102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan into Indiana and
northwestern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241810Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Local risk for a couple of strong gusts and marginal hail,
and possibly a brief tornado or two, is expected to evolve across
the southern Lower Michigan/Indiana/northwestern Ohio vicinity this
afternoon.  Isolated/marginal nature of risk may preclude the need
for WW issuance, but we will continue to monitor evolution.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover
decreasing slightly ahead of a mid-level cyclonic circulation moving
northeastward across the area.  This, co*bined with associated/cool
temperatures aloft and modest afternoon heating has resulted in
development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. 

Within the zone of broad/background ascent, some convective increase
is noted over the past hour, with an associated uptick in lightning.
 This trend should continue over the next couple of hours -- likely
resulting in a few relatively vigorous/low-topped storms which may
prove capable of producing marginal hail and a strong gust or two. 
A brief tornado or two will also be possible, particularly across
southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana where low-level flow is
backed/east-southeasterly near and north of a weak warm front.

At this time, overall risk is expected to remain localized -- too
isolated for serious WW consideration.  However, we will continue to
monitor short-term trends across this area that could warrant
reconsideration of the need for a watch.

..Goss/Guyer.. 09/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41688728 42498604 42418538 41878439 41148428 39698516
            39278735 39928710 40898740 41688728