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Mesoscale Discussion 2087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...North-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 192017Z - 192215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated by around 4-6 PM
CDT across northern Oklahoma into southern/southeast Kansas. This
activity may pose a severe hail/wind threat as it spreads into
eastern Kansas this evening. Watch issuance may be needed later this
afternoon/evening to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery over the past 30 minutes has shown
a steady uptick in cumulus development along a diffuse surface
trough/cold front from southern KS into the eastern TX Panhandle.
The 18 UTC sounding from TOP shows a stout cap remains in place
across east/northeast KS, but hot temperatures across OK/southern KS
in the upper 90s to low 100s are actively mixing out lingering
inhibition (as evidenced by the recent deep convection along I-40 in
western OK). This trend appears to be faster than depicted by recent
CAM solutions, suggesting that robust initiation may occur in the
co*ing hours across southern KS. 

As storms develop, they will mature in an environment characterized
by MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg and 30-40 knots of effective
bulk shear (based on the recent TOP sounding and latest mesosnalysis
estimates). Deep-layer shear vectors largely orthogonal to the front
should favor discrete cells initially with a large hail threat (most
likely hail size between 1.0 to 1.75 inches), but increasing storm
coverage through early evening should promote clustering with an
increasing potential for severe winds (50-70 mph) as activity
spreads into eastern KS. While timing remains somewhat uncertain,
watch issuance may be needed late this afternoon/early evening
across this region.

..Moore/Gleason.. 09/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...to*...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36889803 37859703 37989695 38609644 38919624 39169606
            39279587 39419560 39449536 39439512 39379492 39269480
            39169465 38909455 38549456 38059462 37689482 37319511
            37029559 36819600 36699632 36439778 36399808 36449827
            36579835 36669827 36889803