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Mesoscale Discussion 2077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...western and central Colorado....central into
eastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 171633Z - 171830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development appears
likely to continue through Noon-2 PM MDT.  While stronger storms
posing a risk for locally severe wind gusts probably will remain
widely scattered in the near term, it is possible this could beco*e
more widespread across and east of the Continental Divide this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a vigorous short wave trough, now in the
process of pivoting northeastward across the Great Basin, scattered
thunderstorm development is underway in the presence of weak to
modest destabilization.  Low-level lapse rates are still in the
process of steepening in response to boundary-layer heating and
mixing, beneath the leading edge of mid-level cooling.  However,
downward mixing of 40-50+ kt ambient deep-layer mean flow is already
contributing to severe gusts in the widely scattered stronger
storms.  This is likely to continue through the next few hours, as
the mid/upper trough approaches the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies and
boundary-layer destabilization progresses.

Although the extent of the severe weather potential into and across
the Continental Divide through 18-20Z remains a bit unclear, the
gradual upscale growth of a consolidating line of storms appears at
least possible along/ahead of the leading edge of the mid-level
cooling.  This may be acco*panied by a strengthening surface cold
pool acco*panied by potential for increasingly widespread strong to
severe wind gusts.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 09/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...BYZ...RIW...GJT...

LAT...LON   45310677 44470587 43470512 40750502 38910497 37430523
            36670750 37550837 39730847 40750851 42420854 43510758
            45310677