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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across a large swath
of the High Plains region, mainly from Tuesday late afternoon into
the evening. Severe gusts should be the primary hazard.

...High Plains...
A shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin at 12Z Tuesday
should take on a negative tilt as it advances towards the northern
High Plains. This process will yield a separation of the strong
upper-level jet surrounding the trough, from a meridional co*ponent
shifting north into eastern WY and a zonal co*ponent holding over
AZ/NM. Guidance has oscillated southward with the evolution of the
meridional co*ponent relative to yesterday's guidance. Deep lee
cyclogenesis is expected over northeast WY/southeast MT. This low
will advance north towards the MT/SK border area by 12Z Wednesday. 

Large-scale ascent will be pronounced within this synoptic regime,
with favorable upper-level difluence, mid-level height falls, and
low-level convergence. But weak buoyancy and modest mid-level lapse
rates will characterized much of the environment. The bulk of
convective development will occur over the higher terrain, likely
aided by the subtropical moisture plume over the Southwest.
High-based storms should progress into a well-mixed boundary layer
that may initially be devoid of appreciable CAPE. This lack of
greater buoyancy during the late afternoon to early evening, outside
of northeast MT into the Dakotas, yields substantial uncertainty in
the degree of strong versus severe storms. But with scattered to
widespread convection likely into the evening, sporadic severe gusts
may occur.

...Eastern NC and southeast VA...
The poor predictability of offshore cyclogenesis amplitude and
inland progression on Monday renders minimal confidence in
delineating a severe area on Tuesday. Slower and more aggressive
ensemble members suggest an adequate SRH/buoyancy co*bination for
low-topped tornado potential may linger over eastern NC early in the
period and shift into parts of southeast VA. But overall trends
indicate a generalized weakening low-level wind field may occur
during the day.

..Grams.. 09/15/2024