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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail
will be possible this evening over parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Central and Northern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Dakotas extending southward into northern Nebraska. Along this
corridor, the RAP has a two distinct vorticity maxima analyzed. At
the surface, a trough is located in the northern High Plains, and a
moist airmass is present over much of the central and northern
Plains. Surface dewpoints within this moist airmass vary from the
mid 50s to mid 60s F. The RAP suggests that moderate instability is
present from west-central Nebraska into parts of the Dakotas, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The North Platte
00Z sounding has the best severe environment regionally, with MLCAPE
near 1500 J/kg, and 0-3 km shear around 35 knots. On this sounding,
the average low to mid-level lapse rate is near 7.5 C/km. This,
along with instability and shear suggest that a marginal severe
threat will likely continue for a few more hours. Isolated severe
gusts and hail will be possible with rotating cells. The threat is
expected to diminish during the mid to late evening as instability
decreases across the region.

..Broyles.. 09/15/2024