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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be
possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the
eastern Great Basin to Four Corners.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough currently in place across the northeastern
Pacific is forecast to amplify over the next 24-72 hours as it
migrates southward along the West Coast and eventually into the
Great Basin. As this occurs, an attendant mid-level jet streak will
pivot into the interior West. The co*bination of increasing ascent
and strengthening mid/upper-level winds will support isolated to
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Great
Basin and Four Corners. To the east across the Plains, surface
pressure falls will beco*e increasingly concentrated across the
central to northern High Plains, which will maintain a moisture
return regime. Weak ascent over a broadening warm sector will
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances. 

...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Forecast guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in
strengthening wind fields across NV into UT and AZ by peak heating
Monday as the mid/upper jet noses into the region. Mid-level lapse
rates will steepen through the day ahead of the approaching wave,
which, despite very modest moisture content, should support adequate
buoyancy for convection. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers will
facilitate efficient downward mixing of strong mid-level flow, which
will likely be augmented by evaporatively-cooled downdraft
accelerations. Consequently, the probability for strong to severe
wind gusts appears higher and somewhat more concentrated co*pared to
preceding days. Portions of the Four Corners region may also see a
large hail threat given elongated wind profiles and slightly better
buoyancy due to an influx of low/mid-level moisture from the Gulf of
California. 

...Central to northern Plains...
Northward moisture return is expected to persist through Monday
evening as a lee cyclone beco*es more consolidated across the
central to northern High Plains. With the primary upper-level trough
displaced well to the west, synoptic-scale ascent will remain weak
across the Great Plains region. However, signals for thunderstorm
development within a modest warm-advection regime across ND and
along the lee trough over parts of central/western KS into far
northwest OK are noted in recent solutions. Predictability in either
scenario is too limited to warrant risk probabilities, but the
convective parameter space across both ND and KS/OK appears
conducive for a conditional severe threat. 

...c*astal North Carolina...
A low off the Carolina coast is forecast to gradually
intensify/organize over the next 72 hours, though forecast
uncertainty regarding its exact evolution remains very high (see the
latest NHC forecast discussion for additional details). However, a
few solutions, notably recent GFS and NAM runs, suggest the low will
migrate inland across the Carolinas during the day Monday. As this
occurs, a narrow swath of high theta-e air will span from the NC
coast into eastern NC and perhaps southeast VA. Wind profiles within
this swath may feature strong low-level helicity that could support
some tornado threat given sufficient buoyancy for deep convection.
Confidence in this scenario remains very limited, but forecast
trends will be monitored.

..Moore.. 09/14/2024