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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday across parts of the Upper
Midwest. A few tornadoes, significant damaging winds, and large to
very large hail will acco*pany these storms.

...Upper Midwest Vicinity...

A co*pact but strong midlevel shortwave trough will develop eastward
across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes on Saturday. An
associated band of enhanced westerly mid/upper level flow will
overspread the region as a surface low migrates from SD toward the
lower MO Valley. A cold front will shift east across the Dakotas/NE
during the afternoon, while a warm front lifts northward across
southern MN into central WI. Morning showers and cloud cover may
limit northward progression of the front, and some minor trimming of
higher severe probabilities across northern WI reflects this trend
with the Day 2 update. 

Ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front, surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are forecast beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates, fostering a corridor of moderate to strong
instability. As large-scale ascent increases by midday, ongoing
thunderstorms across west-central MN will increase in intensity and
coverage. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 45 kt will favor
initial supercells capable of very large hail and damaging gusts.
Forecast soundings depict favorably curved low-level hodographs with
a deep inflow layer and moderate to strong low-level shear. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible with any supercell that can maintain
discrete storm mode as convection shifts eastward. 

A southwesterly low-level jet is expected to increase by late
afternoon into the evening. This will foster upscale developing into
a bowing MCS across southeast MN/northern IA and central/southern
WI. The MCS should develop east/southeast along the strong
instability gradient draped across the region. A risk for damaging
gusts, some greater than 65 kt, will increase as this occurs and a
swatch of wind damage is expected across the Enhanced (level 3 of 5)
risk area. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for
mesovortex formation along the leading edge of the
east/southeastward-advancing convection and a few tornadoes will
remain possible into northern IA and across central/southern WI.

...Nebraska into western IA...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of the surface cold front in a deeply mixed and strongly
unstable airmass. Very steep low-level lapse rates and modest
vertical shear will support strong to locally damaging gust
potential and perhaps a few instances of hail. 

...OH...IN...Northern KY...

Strong storms may be ongoing Saturday morning, producing gusty winds
and small hail. An outflow boundary associated with this weakening
activity may beco*e a focus for redevelopment during the afternoon
amid a moist and unstable airmass across parts of IN into southwest
OH/northern KY. These storms could produce gusty winds and
marginally severe hail during the afternoon before diminishing by
evening.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2022