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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a
low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the
northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a
blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the
West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an
embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the
West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week.
However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial
evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z
runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight.